Probability

Mathematics is a marvelous tool for analysis of the present and the past. However, mathematical simulations for the future must be treated as what they really are... possibilities.

On a particular street, out of 100 men, 1 man dies in an accident every month. So, Tom is walking down this street and is wondering what the probability was of him getting hit by a car this month... 1/100. Pretty good chance of being alive then, right? Wham! He's hit by a truck.

Now how did that calculation help. The real answer for Tom's case was 1. If he wasn't hit, it would have been 0. So at any given point of time, the probability for an event taking place is 50%. Either 0 or 1.

That makes the mathematical process of calculating probability redundant right? Wrong again. Imagine a company running a logistics operation based on estimated time lines and cost factors. Now imagine this company operating on a 50% probability model. It will stop functioning. Probability has a high "hit rate", high enough to make profits.

However, taking decisions in one's life based on mathematically determined probabilities is quite elusive. By this, I am not suggesting that everyone steps out of their homes armed to the teeth prepared for war. I am attempting to shift the emphasis from predetermination to spontaneity.

We could start taking life as it comes. Trust our judgment and our ability to act upon them whenever whatever happens.